I thought this would be true a week ago, but now after tonight's debate I feel even more confident. Obama will win the election by at least ten percent. McCain pulled out of Michigan. He is losing considerable ground in Virginia, a state that hasn't gone to the democrats since the 60's. And McCain is also doing poorly in Ohio, a state he badly needs. I doubt Obama could take Florida, but he doesn't need to if you do the math on electoral votes. None of the states that Kerry took last time are sliding over to McCain. Obama instead is taking over Bush's territory.
Here is the situation plain and simply: Bush barely won the last election. He beat John Kerry a man who nothing for us to vote for. Most of us who voted for Kerry were in fact voting against Bush. Now the democrats have someone we can actually vote for. So, not only do we have the failures of the Bush administration these past eight years, we have a very winsome, articulate, intelligent and careful democratic candidate.
Obama didn't "kick butt" tonight, but he demonstrated some clear tact, vision and problem solving skills. He was gracious and a gentleman. McCain in contrast was vague and annoyed the whole evening.
It is in the bag.